Episode 318: Playoff Listener Emails and a Fix for the Draft
Date October 30, 2013 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about the playoffs, then discuss how MLB could disincentivize tanking for higher draft picks. Topics * Jon Lester & Red Sox bullpen * Playoff player acquisition hypothetical * Koji Uehara & Edward Mujica * Disincentivizing tanking * MLB Draft Intro Episode outtake sound clip Email Questions * Wes: "I've always thought it would be fascinating if teams were allowed to claim one player off of the team that they eliminate from the playoffs for the next round. It's somewhat along the lines of a temporary rental proposal but without consent. Let's also assume you aren't allowed to take starting pitchers because usage has a real cost at this stage of the season and because it's too easy. So for the purposes of this exercise, let's change Ben's last name to Cherington and allow him to pick a Tiger. Sam can be John Mozeliak and pick a Dodger. Who do you guys take? An injured Miguel? A healthy Puig? Do you guys take the best player and plug him into the lineup or is chemistry problem caused by sitting an existing guy who helped reach the world series too damaging to risk? This would be exciting, right? Even if your team loses you've got a guy to root for in the next round and you'll get him back at the end of the season." * name unknown: "How much is game one worth? Would you rather win game one in a seven game series or be down game one but have a team that is 20 wins better?" * Dustin: "I'm gonna present you with a comment from a St. Louis fan I read on a discussion board. I feel like it's exasperatingly misguided but I'm not even sure where to start with a rebuttal. 'Right now Koji Uehara is working with magic in my opinion. He's the Edward Mujica of July and August.'" * Mark: doesn't read the question, but notes it is about a proposal presented at the 2012 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference that proposed a fix for the draft. Instead of giving the 1st pick to the team with the worst record, you give the 1st pick to the team that wins the most games after being eliminated. Notes * Ben mentions Alex Avila, Drew Smyly, and Joaquin Benoit as options for players to take from the Tigers. Sam would take Hanley Ramirez from the Dodgers to put on the Cardinals. From the Rays Ben would take Evan Longoria. Sam would take Andrew McCutchen from the Pirates. * Sam thinks the proposal mentioned by Mark would have fewer teams trading veteran players at the deadline, leading to keeping some of the best players out of the postseason. * Sam suggests giving the worst MLB team the 30th pick, and the second to worst team the 1st pick. * A team with a 20 win edge will win a head-to-head matchup 62.5% of the time. This means even if they automatically lost game 1, they would still have a slight edge in a 7 game series (assuming they can get to a game 7). Links * Effectively Wild Episode 318: Playoff Listener Emails and a Fix for the Draft Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes